India 2021 : Concerns and Imperatives
2021 awaits us, with a gun or a garland we do not know. An effective vaccine will also do. It does not require any more emphasizing that 2020 has been the worst year in recent human history, and the Christian coinage annus horribilis is the best phrase to describe it. 2020 has laid bare the systemic shortcomings in our very existence. It has proven, that no matter how aspirational one becomes, the unleashing of an invisible microscopic organism can bring every aspiration down to its knees. Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had once remarked about the requirement of a ‘common enemy’ to unite us. The coronavirus has served itself as that common enemy. However, as humanity steps out of the threshold of 2020 and stands at the gates of 2021, it might be prudent to analyze where we can (and should) go from here. In this article, I try to present an overview of how I see things unfolding for India in five essential sectors, after getting overhauled by the pandemic.
1. ECONOMY
It is no longer a surprise how the Indian GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2020–21 was negative 23.9% — the steepest decline since quarterly growth began to be recorded in 1996. Major sectors like manufacturing and services recorded negative growth, the only exception being agriculture. India became the worst performer among the G20 countries. The economy improved in the third quarter with growth increasing to negative 7.5% It was accompanied by a slew of stimulus measures by the Govt. of India. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook has forecasted a 10.3% fall in growth in 2021. However, seeing recent trends of steady recovery and increased injection of liquidity, it can be estimated that the contraction can be restricted to the 7–8% bracket. 2021 will require greater government expenditure and sustained promotion of some sectors like tourism and hospitality. India aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2025, however, former Governor of RBI C. Rangarajan writes that ‘increasingly the idea is becoming a more distant goal’ and in order to reach $5 trillion, ‘we need to grow continuously at 9% for six years from now.’ India’s current GDP (in nominal terms) is $2.6 trillion.
2. DOMESTIC POLITICS
The pandemic has only served to worsen the already polarized political climate in India. The handling of the public health emergency by the government left much to be desired. The protests over the CAA-NRC, and the consequent riots in northeast Delhi, the ill-planned lockdown leading to large-scale migrant distress, arrest of anti-establishment activists, the re-imposition of public faith in the BJP in the Bihar assembly elections — all these have kept the political landscape fertile despite the onset of the coronavirus. 2021 promises only to increase that fertility. One of the things which should be tackled by the government at war-footing in 2021 is ending the political deadlock over the farm acts. This will only be possible through greater outreach and constructive dialogue with the protesting farmers. It also remains to be seen whether, as publicized, the rules of the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act are framed in 2021. Moreover, key legislative assembly elections to battleground states like West Bengal (294 seats), Tamil Nadu (234 seats) and Kerala (140 seats) are scheduled in 2021. These are likely to be volatile elections since the BJP is not in power in any of these states, and will want to leave no stone unturned to gain foothold, if not the masnad, in these politically significant states. Another important aspect of BJP’s ‘reformist’ agenda is the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). It remains to be seen, if after the triple talaq and Art. 370 ‘masterstrokes’, 2021 sees the UCC. The decennial Census was supposed to be conducted in 2021, with the nation-wide NRC-NPR also in the pipeline. It is unclear how these will be conducted or implemented, and if 2021 is the year when we will get to see any of these.
3. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Multilateralism is here to stay, and will be shaping global policymaking not only in 2021, but for the years to come. With the trust deficit in China reinforced because of Covid-19, several groupings like the ASEAN, the Quadrilateral Dialogue as well as the SAARC, have become important platforms for India to exert its influence as the reliable big brother in the Indo-Pacific. The Galwan Crisis of June 2020, in which 20 soldiers gave the supreme sacrifice, has only exacerbated Sino-Indian relations, with subsequent banning of Chinese apps by the Govt. of India. The election of Joe Biden as the ‘leader of the free world’ is unlikely to change India’s friendly relations with the US. But, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act has not found favour in Bangladesh, a country with which India shares the longest boundary and had exchanged enclaves in 2015. In 2021, India needs to look toward its extended neighbourhood to secure its position in its immediate neighbourhood. India must reach out more to countries like Iran (Chabahar diplomacy) and Russia (S-400), not only for energy and arms security but also for developing geostrategic capabilities to counter the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). India must also be vigilant and careful about Nepal, a country whose behaviour has increasingly turned unpredictable vis-à-vis India. 2021 will not only be a litmus test for India’s Neighbourhood policy, but also for its bid to enhance its global geopolitical relevance through channels like the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
4. ENVIRONMENT
2020 marked five years since the historic Paris Agreement came into force in 2015. The agreement put discretionary and non-obligatory commitments on signatory nations to collectively take climate action (containing global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius). In the Climate Ambition Summit commemorating five years of the agreement, India reiterated its intentions and confidence in sticking to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). 2020 also saw the withdrawal of the US from the agreement, leading to global re-examination of the deal. However, president-elect Biden has affirmed his willingness to re-join the deal. There have been new Blue Flag certified beaches and one additional Ramsar site in India in 2020. The Western Ghats should unarguably be the focal point of biodiversity conservation in 2021, with some exotic species like the Mystirica Swamp Treefog and the Amur Falcon being spotted there this year. The COP26 is scheduled to be held in November, 2021 in Glasgow, with British-Indian politician Alok Sharma presiding over the conference. 2021 will be a crucial year for India to stick to and devise new conservation policies and strategies to efficiently use renewable resources like solar photo-voltaics, if it wants to stick to its net-zero emission and carbon neutrality targets. Leveraging forums like the International Solar Alliance should be fruitful in this regard.
5. MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT
For starters, Republic TV will be launching its Bengali channel Republic Bangla, with an eye on the crucial West Bengal Assembly Elections. So we know what anyone interested in nuance, should avoid. The content streaming industry has, perhaps, been one of the very few beneficiaries of 2020. With almost the entire global population becoming incarcerated in their homes, consumers shifted their site of consumption from the cinema halls to the warmth of their bedrooms and the demand for home entertainment grew exponentially. The already existing effective duopoly of Netflix and Prime Video in India, only strengthened itself in 2020, with both the companies vying for content and original releases. 2020 saw online releases of films directed by the likes of Anurag Kashyap, Shoojit Sircar, Anurag Basu et. al. When everything was hunky-dory for the streaming giants, the Govt. of India dropped a bombshell by announcing in a brief circular that it will be regulating online streaming video content. This might lead to a veto over creative autonomy for which many filmmakers were becoming increasingly fond of making films and shows for streaming. The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting also announced a merger of the Films Division (FD), National Film Archives of India (NFAI), Children’s Film Society (CFS) and the Directorate of Film Festivals (DFF) into the National Film Development Corporation (NFDC), stating overlapping of functions and ‘minimum government, maximum governance’. 2021 is likely to see more films, primarily those which do not necessitate big-screen experience, releasing on online platforms — e.g. The White Tiger, an English-language international production which is an adaptation of Arvind Adiga’s hugely successful novel of the same name, and Dibakar Banerjee’s new film Freedom, starring among others, Naseeruddin Shah and Huma Qureshi. So, digital media of 2010s and 2020s can be considered akin to information technology of the 2000s. Therefore, 2021 is unlikely to witness any major hurdle in the triumphant march of digital.
1921 is known as the Year of the Great Divide, because the ten-year period preceding it was the last period in which India’s population declined. 1921 onward, it has been steadily increasing. 100 years hence, 2021 can also act as a similar year of reckoning, a year in which new rules of engagement of the ‘new normal’ get entrenched in our lives. It is left to be seen if the year gives us renewed hope for life, or newer varieties of pathogens.
